Fitch Rating 2026 Predictions 

Fitch Ratings has offered up some predictions for 2026. The ratings firm thinks premium growth will fall a bit with gains of just 3% to 4%. Fitch’s report also predicts a “normal” number of hurricanes hitting the U.S. in 2026. 

Fitch senior directors, Tana Marcom and Chris Grimes predict a combined ratio of 94 for property casualty insurers next year. That’s a drop of three points from 2025’s combined ratio. 

If the P&C insurers hit that mark it will be the best combined ratio we’ve seen in 15 years.  

Marcom said there was an $18 billion favorable loss reserve in the third quarter of 2025. That’s nearly double the 2024 results.“The sector enters 2026 on solid footing with underwriting profitability expected to persist, although profits will be slightly lower than 2025,” she said. 

Grimes and Marcom believe personal and commercial lines will also see combined ratios of 94 for 2025. And this is the fifth consecutive year of underwriting profitability for commercial lines.  

“We do expect underwriting profits to narrow modestly in 2026 with a combined ratio between 96 and 97,” Grimes said.  

One of the big concerns for insurers is homeowners losses from wildfire. California — alone — added $40 billion in losses in 2025 and another $50 billion from storms that hit the state.  

“Despite this, ample property/ casualty reinsurance capacity is making it a buyers’ market, and primary insurers will benefit from softening rates there in 2026,” Marcom said. 

Source link: Insurance Journal — https://bit.ly/48RKyOR